*BRIEF
Google's quantum computing can soon crack Bitcoin's cryptography. 2029 : When quantum breaks SHA-256 and ECDSA, every wallet is an open vault.
Bitcoin devs say they have a plan. What is the plan?
Zero coordination. Zero timeline. Zero urgency.
Table of Contents
Good morning,
Bitcoin’s security model relies on math problems that
quantum computers will solve like a calculator doing addition.
Bitcoin devs say "we have a plan." Spoiler alert: They do not have a plan.
Shaking my head,
Austin Campbell
Teaching students at NYU Stern
Teaching c-suites at Zero Knowledge
ZERO IN
BACK UP
🤷♂️ WTF is a QUAMPUTER
Normal computers solve problems one at a time. Quantum computers solve millions at once. Not a speed upgrade; it’s a different species of machine.
In December 2024 Google dropped Willow that completed a calculation in 5 minutes which would have taken the fastest supercomputer roughly 10 septillion years.
In March 2026 Google, looking scared of its own computer, accelerated its internal migration towards quantum-resistant encryption.
All this time, Bitcoin community worried about rug pulls, regulation, etc.
Yet Bitcoin is a cryptographic technology. If the cryptography breaks, Bitcoin breaks.
BREAKDOWN
BURNING AT BOTH ENDS
Quantum computers can crack SHA-256 and ECDSA. In a bad hombre’s hands, both Bitcoin wallets and bank accounts will be vulnerable to decryption.
SHA-256 → MINING THREAT
The math that proves the blockchain happened. Quantum breaks it: transaction history becomes rewritable. The ledger isn't the ledger anymore.
ECDSA → KEY THEFT
ECDSA is the “signature scheme” math that proves you own your Bitcoin. A quamputer reverses that math. A quantum hacker will break your key. When he does, say goodbye to everything it unlocks. Every wallet address that has ever broadcast a transaction is vulnerable. Including Satoshi Nakamoto's 1.1M BTC.
None of you realized that the entirety of the Lightning Network [the payment infrastructure powering instant Bitcoin transactions] breaks with quantum computers.
Jameson Lopp, Bitcoin’s most serious security engineer, wrote the migration plan. Five-year cliff, user-initiated, technically sound.
Then Samson Mow, a Bitcoin OG, said this week “rushing a fix is the worst move.”
“Don’t rush” in a leaderless network with no coordination mechanism and a five-year migration cliff that may need to be shortened? Smells off to me.
TIMELINE?
Researchers used to say 20 years but now? Maybe 10. Maybe less.
But "Maybe less" on any nuclear outcome, means we’d have needed defenses against it… yesterday.
After all, if we find out there is a problem only after BTC’s defenses have been breached, it is far too late to do anything to stop it.
DEFENSES?
In 2024, NIST finalized post-quantum cryptography standards: Lattice-based schemes. Hash-based signatures.
So the math is ready… but, apparently, the blockchain Mathematicians are not. Why not?
The risk judgment is the problem: even if quantum turns out to be a phantom menace, there are many other clever mathematical solutions to encryption problems throughout history. BTC lives or dies by encryption. Why not upgrade when failure means total destruction?
BUT WHY?
JAR JAR BITCOIN
Bitcoin’s dev community often speaks as if Bitcoin is safe and has a plan. What plan?
[Bitcoin transitioning to post-quantum cryptography] requires a level of governance coordination never demonstrated in the post-Satoshi era
Zero evidence they have a plan or they can effectively coordinate to develop one.
After all, we have three different versions of Bitcoin just because they couldn’t agree on something simple like block size… and they expect us to think they have a single unified plan to battle quamputers?
ZERO OUT
MAY THE FIX FORCE YOU
Quantum breaks cryptography. Without the Bitcoin dev community reaching consensus to evolve, it faces extinction.
Everyone else needs insurance.
Even if a quantum hack isn't a certainty, the asymmetry (cost of being wrong) is insane. Skip fire insurance because your house "probably" won't burn down?
ZERO INSIDER
A ton of people told me that Bankless flattened my position.
And my real position?
*ahem* and
Appeared on Gil Duran’s The Nerd Reich to talk about Jeffrey Epstein’s dalliances with Bitcoin governance, after reporting about it for The Verge. Epstein’s emails indicate that he played some role in the 2017–2018 Block Size War and generally encouraged crypto’s financialization and shitcoin gambling. This was partly through two PR agencies, run by Masha Prusakova and Masha Drokova, that laundered his reputation while promoting frauds.
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Missed out? ETH for RWAs? Nope, Celo (Green) Opera, Banking Beast Mode